Time Series Percentiles Chart
A Time Series Percentiles Chart displays a set of specified percentiles and/or expected values of a metric (such as free cash flow) over several time periods (e.g., yearly cash flows over a 10-year period). By default DPL will display the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of a given metric for the optimal decision policy but this can be changed or added to within the Times Series Percentiles dialog.
Time Series Percentiles are implemented via the attributes interface.
How DPL Generates Time Series Percentiles:
DPL generates a Risk Profile internally for the metric for each time period specified -- for the optimal decision alternative or for all initial decision alternatives.
DPL calculates the specified percentile points and the expected value from each Risk Profile. For example, the 10th percentile point is the number such that there is a 10% chance the value is less than or equal to that number. If an initial decision alternatives is requested, the percentile points are calculated for each initial decision alternative.
- DPL plots these points on a graph with time on the x-axis and creates vertical "error bars" that connect the percentiles and Expected Value (EV) points for each time period. In the Time Series Percentiles dialog, you can optionally choose two percentiles to be shown as a range bar.
The look of a Time Series Percentiles chart can be modified using the Chart | Format and Chart | Series tabs of the ribbon. Instead of error bars, you can choose to connect the points for each series (10th percentile, 50th percentile, etc.) over time by un-checking the Error Bar box within Chart | Format | Display.
Versions: DPL Professional, DPL Enterprise, DPL Portfolio
Preparing Model for Time Series Percentiles