DPL Papers

See how DPL has solves challenging, real-world decision problems

Real Options
Brandao, L., Dyer, J., Hahn, W. (2005). Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems. Decision Analysis. 2. 69-88.
Brandao, L. & Dyer, J. (2005). Decision Analysis and Real Options: A Discrete Time Approach to Real Option Valuation. Annals OR. 135. 21-39.
Hahn, W., Brandao, L., Dyer, J. (2010). Real options: The value added through optimal decision making. Graziadio Business Report. 13.
Dias, A., Bastian-Pinto, C., Brandao, L., & Gomes, L. (2011). Flexibility and uncertainty in agribusiness projects: investing in a cogeneration plant. RAM. Revista de Administracao Mackenzie, 12(4), 105-126.
Dalbem M., Brandao, L., Gomes, L. Brazil's Quest to Also Foster Wind Energy in the Deregulated Market: Will it Work?. In: 31st USAEE/ILAEE North American Conference, 2012, Austin.
Miranda, O. & Brandao, L. (2013) A Real Option Model To Value An Exploration Mining Project: An Application. [Online].
Guj, P. (2016). A practical methodology to optimise marginal mineral deposits using switching real options. Ore Geology Reviews. 78. 336-345. PDF Available upon request.
Foo, N. (2016). The optimisation investment rule in determining mining investment projects in the Asia-Pacific region. Conference Paper: Western Economic Association International.
Tan B., Anderson, E., Dyer, J., Parker, G. (2009). Using Binomial Decision Trees and Real Options Theory to Evaluate System Dynamics Models of Risky Projects.
Smith, J. & McCardle, K. (1999) Options in the Real World: Lessons Learned in Evaluating Oil and Gas Investments. Operations Research. 47(1), 1-15.

Aerospace/Defense & Security
Shisko, R. (1997). Risk Analysis And System Trades In The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Mission. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology. Accessed via JPL Technical Report Server.
Parnell, G., Smith, C., & Moxley, F. (2010). Intelligent adversary risk analysis: A bioterrorism risk management model. Risk Analysis, 30(1), 32-48.
DAAG 2009 Presentation
Merrick, J. and Parnell, G. S. (2011), A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management. Risk Analysis, 31: 1488-1510. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01590.x
Butler, J., Cronin, P., Dyer, J., Edmunds, T., Ward, R. (2013). Decision Analysis Methods For the Analysis of Nuclear Terrorism Threats with Imperfect Information (No. LLNL-TR-635767). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA.
Greeson, David. International Space Station Program Office, Vehicles Effectiveness & Trades, Analysis & Integration Team (November 14, 1995). Using DPL for ISS Trade Studies.

Fault Tree
Dillon-Merrill, R., Bier V., Borener S., Robinson, M., Mitchell, K., Balakrishna, P., Hepler, A., Best, A. (2014). Quantifying Risk in Commercial Aviation with Fault Trees and Event Sequence Diagrams. Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM 12, June 2014, Honolulu, Hawaii.
Silvianita, S., Khamidi, M., & Kurian, V. (2013). Decision Making for Safety Assessment of Mobile Mooring System. Jurnal Teknologi. 61. .10.11113/jt.v61.1767.
Khamidi, M., Sambodho, K., Syahroni, N., Mulyadi, Y., & Zikra, M. (2016). Investigation of Risk Based Decision Making for Mobile Mooring System. Applied Mechanics and Materials. 836. 233-238.
O'Brien, G., Lesser, N., Pleasant, B., Wang, S., Zheng, K., Bowers, C., Kamke, K. NIST Special Publication 1800-1: Securing Electronic Health Records on Mobile Devices, Final Draft, National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence, National Institute of Standards and Technology, July 2018, https://www.nccoe.nist.gov/publication/1800-1/VolE/#risk-assessment-methodology [accessed 5/31/2019].

J. Eric Bickel & James E. Smith, 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 16-32, March.
Shropshire, D. & Chandler, S. (Dec 2005). Financing Strategies for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facility (INL/EXT-05-01021). United States.
Soundararajan, K., & Han, E. (2014) Probabilistic Analysis of Marine Fuels in Emission Controlled Areas. Energy Procedia. 61. 735 - 738.
Presentated at the International Conference of Applied Energy, Taipee, 2004
French, S., Rios, J., Stewart, T. (2011). Decision analysis and scenario thinking for nuclear sustainability. Manchester Business School.
Beccue, P. & Huntington, H. An Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks. Energy Modeling Forum, Special Report 8, Stanford University, Stanford, California, September 2005.
Dunning, D., Lockfort, S., Ross, Q., Beccue, P., Stonebraker, J. (2001). New York Power Authority Uses Decision Analysis to Schedule Refueling of Its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant. Interfaces, 31(5), 121-135.
Huntington, H. (2008) The Oil Security Problem. International Handbook on the Economics of Energy.
As of October 2016: An Updated Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks
Presented at the DAAG Conference 2017

Pek, P., & Poh, K. (2002). Formulation of Tutoring Policy for Maximising Student Learning using a Decision-Theoretical Approach. International Journal of Engineering Education. 18(6), 652-666.
Johnson, M.S. & Zwick, M. (2000). State-Based Reconstructability Modeling For Decision Analysis.

Pharmaceutical & Healthcare
Morales J., Li X., Irony T., Ibrahim N., Moynahan M., Cavanaugh Jr., K. (2013) Decision Analysis of Retrievable Inferior Vena Cava Filter in Patients without Pulmonary Embolism. Journal of Vascular Surgery. 1(4):376-84. doi: 10.1016/j.jvsv.2013.04.005. Epub 2013 Jul 4.
Beccue, P. & Ruhland, J. Processes and Tools of Portfolio Management: A Baxter Case Study. DAAG Conference, 2012, Chicago.
Mauer, J. Modeling Ordered Uncertainties. DAAG Conference, 2016, Banff.

Pitzler, D. & Haight, J. (2003) SPU Solid Waste Facilities Masterplan (Technical Memo No. 6), Prepared for Seattle Public Utilities by CH2MHill. Retrieved from: https://www.seattle.gov/util/cs/groups/public/@spu/@garbage/documents/webcontent/cos_001792.pdf.
Merkhofer, M.W.; Conway, R. & Anderson, R.G. Multiattribute utility analysis as a framework for public participation siting a hazardous waste facility, article, May 1, 1996; Albuquerque, New Mexico. https://www.digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc673219/: accessed June 21, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.

Engineering & Construction
Kim, S., Yoon, J., Kwon, O., & Paek, J. (2005). Feasibility analysis simulation model for managing construction risk factors. Journal of Asian architecture and building engineering, 4(1), 193-200.

DPL Books

DiLellio, James. (2022) Real Option Modeling and Valuation: A Decision Analysis Approach using DPL and Excel. 3rd Ed. Self Published.

Companion Website: https://sites.google.com/view/real-options/home

The application of option pricing methods, which were initially developed for financially traded assets, are now often applied to the valuation of options on real assets. Real options supplements standard discounted cash flow valuation approaches by including the value of managerial flexibility. Real Option modeling and Valuation attempts to bridge the gap between theory and practice using the commercially available software program DPL and Excel to provide a decision tree approach to valuation using real options. -James DiLellio