Probabilities for a Chance-Dependent Chance Event (Command Program)

Specifying the State of an Influencing Event

When the state of the conditioning event is specified, DPL displays the event probabilities that are conditioned on the state of the influencing event. Consider the following command (See Displaying Probability Distributions):

MarketShare | Competition.Strong

The Session Log displays the following:

MarketShare | Competition.Strong
_MarketShare.Gain: 0.2
_MarketShare.Lose: 0.8

Notice that the probabilities displayed are the original probabilities defined in the definition section of the program code.

Specifying the state of an event reduces the amount of probability output. For example, you can specify both the state of the conditioning event Competition and the state of MarketShare.

MarketShare.Gain | Competition.Strong

In this case the Log displays the following:

MarketShare.Gain | Competition.Strong : 0.2

Marginal Probabilities (Not Specifying the State of a Conditioning Event)

When the state of the conditioning event is not specified, DPL performs necessary marginal computations for the event probabilities. Consider the following command:


Because the state of the conditioning event Competition is not specified, DPL performs a marginal computation for the event MarketShare and displays the following probabilities:

_MarketShare.Gain: 0.3
_MarketShare.Lose: 0.7

You may want to see the formulas that are used to generate such probability calculations. To display the formulas along with the probabilities, click Execute | Formulas (see Displaying Formulas) and execute the command again. With Formulas turned on, the Session Log displays the marginal probabilities of event MarketShare and the corresponding formulas.

>>>>>>>>>>>>> FORMULAS

Competition.Strong * (MarketShare.Gain | Competition.Strong)
+ Competition.Weak * (MarketShare.Gain | Competition.Weak)

Competition.Strong * (MarketShare.Lose | Competition.Strong)
+ Competition.Weak * (MarketShare.Lose | Competition.Weak)

>>>>>>>>>>>>> PROBABILITIES

___MarketShare.Gain: 0.3
___MarketShare.Lose: 0.7

Versions: DPL Professional, DPL Enterprise, DPL Portfolio

See Also

Working in the Command Program