Using the Combine Expert Opinions dialog
- Begin entering data with the most reliable expert.
- In the Name entry box, type a name or label for the expert.
- In the Fractiles section, enter the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles (as decimals not percents) of the expert's probability distribution for the likelihood (probability) being assessed.
- In the Overlap entry box, type the overlap factor of the expert, a quantity between 0 and 1. The most reliable (first) expert has an overlap factor of 0. An expert whose information adds nothing new has an overlap factor of 1, in which case the expert's weight will be zero.
- Click Add.
- Repeat the preceding four steps for each remaining expert in order of descending reliability.
- Select the expert in the list by clicking on the number of the expert. The expert's data appears in the Expert section beneath the list.
- Change the data.
- Click Update.
- Select the expert in the list by clicking on the number of the expert.
- Click Delete.
- If you wish to clear all the expert data from the chance node, you must delete each expert one at a time and click OK.
Experience Indices
The reliability of each expert is ranked by the experience score. The experts must be listed in order of greatest to least experience. If this is not the case, DPL will display a warning and ask you to re-rank the experts. To change the rank of an expert, click on the number of the expert. In the "Expert" section, change the expert's rank, then click Update. DPL re-ranks the experts using the new ranking. If further experts are ranked incorrectly, repeat the process until all experts are correctly ranked.
Versions: DPL Enterprise, DPL Portfolio
See Also