DPL: Intuitive Software for Making Better Decisions
DPL offers an easy-to-use risk modeling environment that incorporates key decision framing tools – Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees – with Excel to help you understand, quantify, and manage risk.
What is DPL Professional?
DPL Professional is a standalone, desktop application for decision and risk analysis, decision-tree based real option analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. It’s a comprehensive tool that supports the entire decision analysis process – incorporating a unique influence diagram/decision tree combination for decision framing and structuring, extensive support for Excel linking, a variety of sensitivity analyses options, and insightful outputs that can help you understand and communicate:
- the best course of action in the face of uncertainty
- the degree of risk in an asset or situation
- the value of an investment
What types of decision-problems is DPL Professional used for?
DPL has been used by leading companies in a wide range of industries to make better, more informed decisions that lead to better outcomes and enhanced value creation. Some typical applications include:
- R&D project prioritization
- Capital allocation under uncertainty
- Schedule risk analysis / forecasting
- Lifecycle management of capital assets
- Real Option valuation
- Supply chain risk management
Is DPL a tool for discrete decision tree analysis or continuous Monte Carlo simulation?
DPL does both. Decision-problems can often be approached with either method – and each approach can have it’s advantages, which is why DPL is happy to go either way.
DPL provides many options for modelling uncertainty. But fundamentally, DPL is either evaluating a discrete or a continuous model. If you have any continuous chance nodes in your model, you’ll be running a Monte Carlo simulation; otherwise, you have a tree with a finite number of paths, and you’ll run some kind of decision tree method.
There are just a couple of exceptions to the rule:
- If you have a discrete chance node and you know that the underlying probability distribution has a specific form and parameters you can have DPL produce a discrete chance node that approximates that distribution
- If you have a discrete decision tree with a huge number of paths, you can often evaluate it more quickly by using discrete tree simulation, which basically takes random draws from the decision tree
What outputs does DPL Professional offer?
DPL Professional offers all of the essential risk analysis outputs to give you maximum insight into the results. Each output produced is attractive and presentation-ready by default, yet can also be can easily customized as you see fit.
- Tornado Diagram
- Risk Profile
- Rainbow Diagram
- Policy Tree
- Time Series Percentile Chart
- Value of Information/Control
- Endpoint Database
- Value Correlations Chart
- Policy Summary
- Option Value Chart