We offer both commercial and academic licenses of the DPL Professional version. Features include:
Influence Diagrams
Assess risk with confidence. Use DPL Influence Diagrams to graphically depict the main factors in a decision model and their relationships. By demonstrating how different factors influence each other, an accurate estimate of risk can be made.
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Decision Trees
Provide formal structure and indicate timing for
decision problems. Decision Trees illustrate "what
happens next?" in order to provide a framework for
making the decision.
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Decision Tree rollback
Get an exact answer by calculating the expected value
of the overall objective measure (e.g., NPV) and other
key metrics to provide the information you need to take
action. |
Monte Carlo simulation
A computation technique for modeling problems
with significant uncertainty in inputs. Monte Carlo
Simulation in DPL supports downstream decisions,
enabling serious real options analysis, where the
exercise policy isn't an =IF statement. It can also mix
discrete and continuous elements to build asymmetric
hybrid models. |
Fast sequence evaluation
DPL's proprietary algorithm to analyze large trees at
lightning speeds by taking advantage of the Decision
Tree structure. |
Bayesian revision
Typically you know the results of a diagnostic test or
market study before you know whether the actual
condition exists or how well the product performs on
the market, yet the accuracy of the test is specified in
the opposite way (e.g., given condition X exists, the test
results are positive Y% of the time). Bayesian revision
allows you to specify uncertain relationships the way
the data comes to you in the Influence Diagram but use
them in the Decision Tree in the order they occur in the
real world. |
Tornado Diagrams
Often the first step in a successful analysis is to produce
a tornado diagram - a graphical sensitivity analysis
which shows the relative importance of the value
drivers. Use tornado diagrams to chart the direction for
the rest of the analysis, and provide focus on the factors
which influence decisions and have the greatest effect
on value. DPL has several versions of Tornado Diagram
to get you the information you need. |
Risk Profiles
Need to answer key questions about the character of
the uncertainty in a decision? Is this a safe business
with a narrow band of operational risk; is this a big
bet with only a 10% chance of paying off; what is the
chance we will lose money? Risk profiles illustrate the
range of uncertainty in the overall objective measure
(e.g., NPV). The expected value of the risk profile (the
probability weighted average over all scenarios) tells
you what the project is worth. |
Policy Trees™
Identify the winning strategy by developing a complete
picture of all the possible scenarios and understanding
the value maximizing decision alternative at each point.
Expand, collapse or filter Policy Trees to make large
trees easier to analyze. |
Policy Summaries™
Do you need to know how often you exercise a
downstream option? Or which uncertainty drivers lead
to downstream decision alternatives being selected?
The Policy Summary provides a way to filter scenarios in
order to see trends where specific decision alternatives
have been chosen or where uncertain outcomes were
more/less likely. |
Rainbow Chart
Understand the impact on the overall value measure
and optimal policy to a range of settings of a single
input variable. |
Value of Information/Control
Understand how much you should invest in further
research, how much value there is in delaying a decision
or the value of putting control systems in place. DPL's
Value of Information/Control quantifies in overall value
measure terms the value of knowing the outcome
(value of information) or picking the outcome (value of
control) of an uncertainty before making a decision. |
Two-Way Rainbow Chart
Understand the impact on the overall value measure
and optimal policy to a range of settings of two input
variables. |
Endpoint database
Record and save endpoint values in order to
conduct "what if" sensitivity analyses without having to
re-run the full model.
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Arrays in the Influence Diagram
Simply and quickly import a whole series of results from
Excel models into DPL with a single array value node.
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Excel spreadsheet conversion
For the ultimate in analytical power use DPL
to "compile" cash flow spreadsheets - taking them
apart cell by cell, formula by formula - to build a
representation of their calculations. With the converted
file, DPL can recalculate the spreadsheet far faster than
Excel, leading to dramatic reductions in runtime.
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Multiple attributes
Your overall measure of value may be the combination
of a number of different factors or you might want to
track multiple metrics even if your decision is based
on a single overall measure. DPL can track multiple
attributes and let you see expected values and Risk
Profiles for these additional attributes.
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Subtree Risk Profiles
Understand the range and likelihood of the overall
value measure, or other metrics, in a given scenario.
For example, if our competitor beats us to market and
we price aggressively, what does the value look like?
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Time Series Percentiles
It may not be enough to know the expected value of a
project. You may want to know when it becomes cash
flow positive. Time Series Percentiles allow you to see
how the uncertainty in key value measures evolve over
time for all of your initial decision alternatives.
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Initial Decision Alternatives Results
Sometimes you may want to know more about the risk or uncertainty or cash flows for more than just the optimal decision policy. DPL allows you to generate risk profiles and time series percentiles for all of your initial decision alternatives for easy comparison.
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Option Value Chart
How much value is being created by developing flexible
strategic plans that can be modified as conditions
change? DPL's Option Value Chart shows you the value
created by each decision in the model.
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Value Correlations
Need to understand which values are contributing to the overall measure of value? Value Correlations help you understand which factors drive value in complex value models.
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