Syncopation Software

DPL 8 Professional

The benchmark tool pros look to for decision and risk analysis
DPL 8 PROFESSIONAL is the easy-to-use graphical decision tree software package for decision and risk analytics. From explicit decision framing to robust sensitivity analyses to complex model build-out and, finally, the generation of insightful, presentation-ready results, DPL Professional has got all your bases covered.
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DPL Professional includes the following features:

Influence Diagrams

Assess risk with confidence. Use DPL Influence Diagrams to graphically depict the main factors in a decision model and their relationships. By demonstrating how different factors influence each other, an accurate estimate of risk can be made.

Decision Trees

Provide formal structure and indicate timing for decision problems. Decision Trees illustrate "what happens next?" in order to provide a framework for making the decision.

Decision Tree rollback

Get an exact answer by calculating the expected value of the overall objective measure (e.g., NPV) and other key metrics to provide the information you need to take action.

Monte Carlo simulation

A computation technique for modeling problems with significant uncertainty in inputs. Monte Carlo Simulation in DPL supports downstream decisions, enabling serious real options analysis, where the exercise policy isn't an =IF statement. It can also mix discrete and continuous elements to build asymmetric hybrid models.

Fast sequence evaluation

DPL's proprietary algorithm to analyze large trees at lightning speeds by taking advantage of the Decision Tree structure.

Bayesian revision

Typically you know the results of a diagnostic test or market study before you know whether the actual condition exists or how well the product performs on the market, yet the accuracy of the test is specified in the opposite way (e.g., given condition X exists, the test results are positive Y% of the time). Bayesian revision allows you to specify uncertain relationships the way the data comes to you in the Influence Diagram but use them in the Decision Tree in the order they occur in the real world.

Tornado Diagrams

Often the first step in a successful analysis is to produce a tornado diagram - a graphical sensitivity analysis which shows the relative importance of the value drivers. Use tornado diagrams to chart the direction for the rest of the analysis, and provide focus on the factors which influence decisions and have the greatest effect on value. DPL has several versions of Tornado Diagram to get you the information you need.

Risk Profiles

Need to answer key questions about the character of the uncertainty in a decision? Is this a safe business with a narrow band of operational risk; is this a big bet with only a 10% chance of paying off; what is the chance we will lose money? Risk profiles illustrate the range of uncertainty in the overall objective measure (e.g., NPV). The expected value of the risk profile (the probability weighted average over all scenarios) tells you what the project is worth.

Policy Trees™

Identify the winning strategy by developing a complete picture of all the possible scenarios and understanding the value maximizing decision alternative at each point. Expand, collapse or filter Policy Trees to make large trees easier to analyze.

Policy Summaries™

Do you need to know how often you exercise a downstream option? Or which uncertainty drivers lead to downstream decision alternatives being selected? The Policy Summary provides a way to filter scenarios in order to see trends where specific decision alternatives have been chosen or where uncertain outcomes were more/less likely.

Rainbow Chart

Understand the impact on the overall value measure and optimal policy to a range of settings of a single input variable.

Value of Information/Control

Understand how much you should invest in further research, how much value there is in delaying a decision or the value of putting control systems in place. DPL's Value of Information/Control quantifies in overall value measure terms the value of knowing the outcome (value of information) or picking the outcome (value of control) of an uncertainty before making a decision.

Two-Way Rainbow Chart

Understand the impact on the overall value measure and optimal policy to a range of settings of two input variables.

Endpoint database

Record and save endpoint values in order to conduct "what if" sensitivity analyses without having to re-run the full model.

Arrays in the Influence Diagram

Simply and quickly import a whole series of results from Excel models into DPL with a single array value node.

Excel spreadsheet conversion

For the ultimate in analytical power use DPL to "compile" cash flow spreadsheets - taking them apart cell by cell, formula by formula - to build a representation of their calculations. With the converted file, DPL can recalculate the spreadsheet far faster than Excel, leading to dramatic reductions in runtime.

Multiple attributes

Your overall measure of value may be the combination of a number of different factors or you might want to track multiple metrics even if your decision is based on a single overall measure. DPL can track multiple attributes and let you see expected values and Risk Profiles for these additional attributes.

Scenario Risk Profiles

Understand the range and likelihood of the overall value measure, or other metrics, in a given scenario. For example, if our competitor beats us to market and we price aggressively, what does the value look like?

Time Series Percentiles

It may not be enough to know the expected value of a project. You may want to know when it becomes cash flow positive. Time Series Percentiles allow you to see how the uncertainty in key value measures evolve over time.

Option Value Chart

How much value is being created by developing flexible strategic plans that can be modified as conditions change? DPL's Option Value Chart shows you the value created by each decision in the model.

Value Correlations

Need to understand which values are contributing to the overall measure of value? Value Correlations help you understand which factors drive value in complex value models.