Syncopation Software

DPL Software Tutorial Videos

Building & Analyzing an Excel-linked Decision Model

The six videos below are a cumulative set of DPL Software Tutorial Videos in which I provide step-by-step instructions that will help you build, refine, and analyze a probabilistic decision model within a Influence Diagram-focused mode in DPL. The decision model is linked to an Excel cash flow spreadsheet. The spreadsheet used in the tutorial is called BroadswordPro.xlsx and is set up to analyze a New Product Development opportunity.

If you'd like to work through the following video tutorials with DPL you can download the BroadswordPro.xlsx spreadsheet using the link below:

https://www.syncopation.com/downloads/BroadswordPro.xlsx

You can download a free 21-day trial license of DPL Professional here:

https://www.syncopation.com/dpl-professional-trial



Building Excel-linked Decision Models in DPL: Video #1

Creating a Deterministic Model from Excel

This video provides a brief overview of the spreadsheet used in the tutorial and shows how to start building a deterministic model in DPL's Influence Diagram from an Excel Cash Flow spreadsheet.




Building Excel-linked Decision Models in DPL: Video #2

Adding Influence Arcs to the Model and Running a Preliminary Analysis

This video shows you how to generate arcs for a decision model. It introduces the various DPL Node Types used within the series and provides an overview of the Node Definition dialog. Near the end a preliminary analysis is run to check Excel links.




Building Excel-linked Decision Models in DPL: Video #3

Conducting Sensitivity Analysis and Introducing Probabilities

In this video I conduct a sensitivity analysis in the form of a value tornado in order to see which variable have the greatest impact on my objective. I model the variables found to have the most impact (i.e. at the top of the tornado) probabilistically by changing them from value nodes to discrete chance nodes.




Building Excel-linked Decision Models in DPL: Video #4

Adding a Decision and Running a Decision Analysis to Produce Results

In this video I add a decision to the probabilistic model and run a decision analysis in order to produce two of DPL's fundamental outputs -- the Policy Tree™ and Risk Profile. Each output is examined and explained.




Building Excel-linked Decision Models in DPL: Video #5

Adding Conditioning to a Probabilistic Model

In this video I introduce value-wise conditioning to the probabilistic model. A Market Test variable is added -- the results for which will condition the values of the Market Share node.




Building Excel-linked Decision Models in DPL: Video #6

Adding a Downstream Decision to the Model

In this video I add an explicit Launch decision to the model after I learn about the outcome of the Market Test uncertainty. This is referred to as a "Downstream Decision". I then analyze the model to see if the flexibility of this exit option adds value to the project.