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Probabilities for a Decision-Dependent Chance Event (Command Program)

Probabilities for a Decision-Dependent Chance Event (Command Program)

If the event depends on a decision or controlled event, the Session Log displays a probability distribution for each state of the conditioning event. For instance, consider the following command (See Displaying Probability Distributions):

OperatingCosts;

Because the event OperatingCosts depends on the influencing decision Modernize, the Log displays the two sets of probability distributions, one for each alternative of the decision Modernize.

OperatingCosts
~~~Modernize.Yes
___OperatingCosts.Sink: 0.3
___OperatingCosts.Rise: 0.7

~~~Modernize.No
___OperatingCosts.Sink: 0.4
___OperatingCosts.Rise: 0.6

The ~~~ symbols preceding Modernize (in state Yes) and Modernize (in state No) indicate that the subsequent probability distribution corresponds to a particular state of decision Modernize. DPL uses ~~~ symbols to separate the mutually exclusive probability distributions associated with particular states of generic events, influencing decisions, or controlled events. This is necessary whenever (1) the command contains more than one generic event or (2) the states of related influencing decisions or controlled events (whether or not contained in the command) are unknown.

Specifying the state of the conditioning event narrows the probability output. For example, you can specify the state of the conditioning event Modernize.

OperatingCosts | Modernize.Yes;

In this case, the Session Log displays only one probability distribution.

OperatingCosts.Sink: 0.3
OperatingCosts.Rise: 0.7

Versions: DPL Professional, DPL Enterprise, DPL Portfolio

See Also

Working in the Command Program