The #2 Reason Why Project Values Get Revised Down

In an earlier post I argued that the #1 cause of downward project revisions in portfolio analysis is a phenomenon called "winner's curse", whereby the error in estimating project values, together with screening criteria, results in more negative surprises than positive ones. In this post, I'll talk about the #2 reason (which might be the #1 reason in some portfolios).

Want to Simplify your ERP/PPM Tools and Processes? Try DPMX!

Deploying a fully integrated PPM System within your organization doesn't have to be expensive, time-consuming, or painful! Embed Syncopation Software's DPMX System into your resource planning processes and start reaping the benefits a straightforward, cost-efficient portfolio analytic system backed by rigorous decision analytics and robust data management tools can bring to your team and portfolio.

Generating Meaningful Tornado Diagrams in Pharma

In a previous post, Chris expounded on the methods for generating good tornado diagrams. It's relatively straightforward to create a meaningful tornado for a business problem defined by a few symmetric quantitative chance events (i.e., the kind with 10/50/90 assessments and Low/Nominal/High outcomes).

DPL 9 -- The Tool for Die-hard Decision Tree Fans

Are you a die-hard decision tree fan? Well then you've landed on the right blog. Let me first say that we here at Syncopation (publishers of class-leading decision tree software, DPL) have always prided ourselves on the fact that DPL's modeling interface offers a unique synergism of a Decision Tree and an Influence Diagram. We still hold those sentiments, but during the development of the latest DPL release we came to the realization that for certain users and/or decision-problems the Influence Diagram might be better off taking a backseat.

The #1 Reason Why Project Values Get Revised Down

A topic of considerable lament in portfolio management circles is the frequent downward revision of project valuations. Anecdotally, it just seems like news tends to bring the project value down more often than it pushes it up. Senior management often views this as something sinister, a sign of deception or flawed execution: "Last year you bozos told me this was a blockbuster!".

Would You Like Fries with that? Reflecting on the Value of Cheap Information

Larry Neal's recent column in September's Decision Analysis Today talks about the value proposition of Decision Quality (DQ), and a key point is the Value of Information (VOI). One of the most powerful things about decision analytic methods is the ability to explicitly calculate the value of information, in order to make an intelligent choice about whether to buy it.

Building Long-lived Decision Models

Are you building a house, or just pitching a tent?

When you read about decision analysis models in case studies, they're usually described in the narrative as part of an epic process, one that begins with organizational angst and ends with a resounding consensus to pull the lever on that "irrevocable allocation of resources". Right, and sometimes that really happens! But more often, the allocation of those resources is gradual, and even when a single large chunk of capital has been committed, there are steps along the path where the project is reevaluated.

Model of the Month: A Regional Sales Forecast for a Pharmaceutical Drug


July's MOTM is sourced from the Pharmaceutical sector and proves an excellent example of how certain large models, when structured properly, can take advantage of DPL's various compile time optimizations to give you insightful results at exceedingly manageable runtimes.

Model and Results


Model of the Month: A Clinical Decision about Medical Device Selection

May's Model of the Month was submitted by a group of ParisTech's GRID students who, under the guidance of long-time DPL user Professor Marc Lassagne (, developed a model that will help practitioners choose the most appropriate type of hip prosthesis based on patient demographics.

The model uses 3 decisions (Material Type, Fixation Type, and Prosthesis Type) to enumerate the best overall prosthesis choice for a particular subset of patients based on the following criteria:

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